BROKERS MAKE A DIFFERENCE

General Ian Wang 5 Mar

BROKERS MAKE A DIFFERENCE

While many people will go to their bank to obtain a mortgage or line of credit, they often feel betrayed by their favourite bank if their application is rejected. One big advantage that we have over banks is that we can send underwriter notes along with the application. Our questions and speaking at length with the borrower give us insight that the underwriter will never get from the facts and figures on the application.
A while ago, I had an application at a lender for a young man who wanted to buy his first home.

He worked in the construction trades and his income history was up and down over the past 3 years. He needed overtime to support his application and the two year average wasn’t there.

I went back with 3 years of Notices of Assessments, his recent pay stubs and pleaded the case for my client. The underwriter finally asked for an exception based on my confidence in the client. She trusted my judgement and the mortgage was approved.
This leads me to the idea that underwriter notes are very important and can mean the difference between an approval and a decline. If you have a chance, ask your underwriter how they like their notes; in point form or in paragraphs. Do they prefer emails or phone calls?

When a successful mortgage broker writes notes they start by stating what product they are asking for and giving their contact information. I put my contact info at the top of the notes and at the bottom so they don’t have to go searching for it if they have a question or need clarification. I then state what my client is trying to do; purchase their first home, refinance, a renewal or if it’s’ a switch, that they want to benefit from lower interest rates.
I then list the areas I want to highlight: Income, credit, property, down payment and start with their weakest link first and explain their situation. I had a client who had her down payment in a joint account with her father in Japan. I started with that knowing that a paper trail would be important. If the credit score is low, is it due to a past illness, divorce or job loss? I tell the underwriter right away. As a result, underwriters trust me and have given my clients a second look or asked for an exception. Finally, I finish up by summarizing the strong points in the file and thanking them for their consideration of my file.

I never yell or give my underwriters a blast if they decline a file. I will, however, ask why the file was declined so that I can better prepare my client for the disappointment and plan on how we can remedy the situation. Just as a FYI, a manager at a major bank told me that at one bank he worked for after hitting the send key he received a simple message back – either APPROVED or DECLINED with no explanation. Now who do you think mortgage clients should deal with? A bank or a broker?

 

By David Cooke

4 FACTS ABOUT USING A GUARANTOR OR CO-SIGNER

General Ian Wang 16 Nov

16 NOV 2018

4 FACTS ABOUT USING A GUARANTOR

by Geoff Lee

A Guarantor, when it comes to mortgages, is exactly what it sounds like—they “Guarantee” the mortgage for another person if they are unable to pay back the loan.

Guarantor’s or co-signers are often used if someone has:

• Damaged or poor credit
• Insufficient income

In most cases, someone with poor credit and/or insufficient income has a more challenging time securing a mortgage. Adding a guarantor can help get the file approved as the lender is assured that he or she will be paid, should the mortgage holder default.

Many people will assume that a co-signer and a guarantor are the same thing. This is not the case though…there are key differences that you should know before becoming a guarantor on a mortgage.

1. Whose name is on the loan?
This may seem like a small detail, but when it comes to loans, whose name is on it matters!
With a guarantor, their name will not be on the title of the property, but it will be on the mortgage. With a co-signor, this changes in that their name will be on the mortgage and on the title of the property. In addition to this, for a guarantor mortgage the guarantor must be a spouse. With a co-signer this is not the case, and you can utilize whomever agrees and meets the qualifications.

2. What’s the Risk?
For the people seeking a guarantor, a portion of risk is alleviated because they have the guarantee of the guarantor. However, for the guarantor, there is a heightened risk. They are responsible for the entire amount of the loan if the borrower defaults at any time. With this in mind, lenders require the guarantor(s), in addition to the borrower(s), to qualify for the loan they are looking to borrow. They must meet the following lending requirements which include:
. Credit Check
. Disclosure of income
. Disclosure of Liabilities
. Disclosure of Assets

It is also highly advisable that a potential guarantor seek legal advice before signing for the loan—and this should be a separate attorney from the one that is involved in the mortgage transaction. Seeking out proper legal advice can allow the potential guarantor to ensure they fully understand the contract, the loan, and any other details.

One final note that should be evaluated by any potential guarantors, is the relationship with the person you will be signing for. You are taking a risk and taking on a lot of responsibility for this person and it is advisable that you know the person well and trust them.

3. What other Variables are there to Consider for Guarantors?
There are a few other things that a guarantor will want to consider before finalizing anything. One of these is the fact that if you are a guarantor, you may not be able to qualify for a large loan or mortgage on your own. Look at your goals and future (or current) expenses before taking on this additional responsibility. As a final note to guarantors, they may want to consider creditor insurance (amount varies based on the loan) to protect themselves and their assets.

4. Can your relationship with your bank dictate if I need a Guarantor?
In some cases, yes! If you have a long-standing relationship with your current bank and they have seen your ability to responsibly handle debt-repayment, they may consider not requiring you to have a guarantor. This is not always the case, but it is an option that your mortgage broker may review with you.

These 4 facts along with your mortgage broker’s advice, can help you decide if you want to be a guarantor, or if you truly require a guarantor mortgage after all! If you have any other questions about guarantors or co-signers, we encourage you to reach out to your Dominion Lending Centres Mortgage Broker—we know they will be happy to help!

MORTGAGE BROKERS HAVE SOLUTIONS

General Ian Wang 20 Aug

MORTGAGE BROKERS HAVE SOLUTIONS

A lot of people are getting stressed out by Canada’s new mortgage stress test. In the past, if you had a good sized down payment (ie 20%) someone with a low income could purchase a home even if they did not meet the debt level guidelines for insured mortgages of 32/40 . Later this was changed to 35/44 which made life even easier but – no more.

What is a person with a low income, good credit and a good down payment supposed to do now?

Here’s a solution – get a roommate. If you purchase a home with a friend who is going to share the other bedroom of your condo or take over the basement, the rules do not allow you to include the rent. But there are plenty of homes out in the market with a legal basement suite, a duplex or perhaps a granny suite over the garage. As long as the income portion of your property is zoned for a rental portion, you can claim a portion of the rent as income and qualify for more house.

There are certain minimum guidelines for lenders  – they usually want a separate entrance, kitchen and washroom. They may ask for a separate hot water tank as well. Lenders will credit 50% -85% of the rent towards your annual income. Don’t worry , your Dominion Lending Centres mortgage broker knows the rules and can guide you through the process.  Calling us can get you into a home faster than you thought possible.

 

By David Cookie

IT’S ALL ABOUT THE PROPERTY

General Ian Wang 10 Jul

With all of the rule changes imposed by the federal and provincial governments around mortgage financing and real estate it may be more difficult to access financing. But don’t take it personally – sometimes it’s not you it’s the property.
When lenders underwrite your application for approval they look at you as a borrower but they also evaluate the property.

Here are some things to consider before you purchase.
The type of property — house, condo, duplex, heritage, etc.
1. Especially for condo properties the lender (and insurer if required) will look at the age of the building, the history of maintenance or lack there of and the location for marketability. Some lenders will limit their exposure with a maximum number of units in a building or avoid lending on buildings after a certain age for the property.
2. Properties with more than 4 units in them such as a 5-plex will be considered commercial real estate and the lender will evaluate on that basis.
3. Heritage homes (registered or designated) require a more detailed review and special consideration for financing.
4. Leasehold and co-op properties also have specific requirements for the maximum loan to value so more down payment may be required. More documentation will be required and interest rates will vary.

The location of the property— lenders always consider their risk in each market.
1. If the location limits the potential resale value for the building in the event of default by the borrower they may not lend on that property. Some lenders will reduce the loan amount for a building located out of major market areas or add a premium to the interest rate.
2. For properties with water access only or with no access to municipal utilities (water, heat, light and sewer) more details are required to assess the lender risk. Insurance coverage, water testing, seasonal access and condition of the property will be strong considerations.

The use for the property— personal or investment, recreational, previous activities.
1. If the owner occupied house has a suite then rental income may be considered.
2. If the house is purchased for investment then rental income is considered and the interest rate for rental rather than owner occupied is assigned. In these cases the rental income can increase the resale value of the property. However, the appraisal of the property will be reviewed to ensure the condition of the property and if any renovations were completed to add value.
3. There are lending options for a previous grow-op that come with higher interest rates and costs
4. In the case of a condo the property may have a commercial component in the building (shops below) or allowable space in the unit for business (live/work designation). In these cases some lenders may not have an appetite for financing. In some cases the lender may allow with approval by the insurer (CMHC, etc).
5. Purchasing a second home for recreational use will require a review if it is seasonal or year-round access.
6. If the property requires renovations the extent and cost to value of the property will be considered.

It is very important before you start looking at any property to talk with a Dominion Lending Centres mortgage broker. This allows you to discuss the specific requirements for any variation in the type of property you may want to purchase and allow ample time for a full financing review before subject removal on a purchase.

For example:
If you shift from a standard condo to a lease-hold property your down payment amount will likely change.
If you want to move to a small rural town or to a small island you may have to pay a higher rate or have less options and more documentation required on the property.
If you buy a home in one province but may be transferred to another province, some lenders such as credit unions are provincially based so you can’t port the mortgage.
If the condo you wish to buy has no deprecation report, a low contingency fund or big special levies pending, these will all be a red flag for the lender and should be a strong consideration for you as a buyer. A more thorough review will be required.

Always consult an experienced independent mortgage broker as your trusted advisor for all of your financing needs. You will appreciate the difference in the level of expertise to help you make an informed decision.

From

Dominion Lending Centres

Paulline Tonkin

5 ways you can kill your mortgage approval

General Ian Wang 16 May

5 ways you can kill your mortgage approval

So, you found your dream home, negotiated a fair price which was accepted. You supplied all the needed documentation to your mortgage broker and you are waiting for the day that you go to the lawyer’s to sign the final paperwork and pick up the keys.

All of a sudden your broker or the lawyer calls to say that there’s a problem. How could this be? Everything has been signed and conditions have been removed. What many home buyers do not realize is that your financing approval is based on the information the lender was provided at the time of the application. If there have been any changes to your financial situation, the lender is within their rights to cancel your mortgage approval. There are 5 things that can make home financing go sideways.

1 Employment – You were working for ABC company as a clerk for 5 years making $50,000 a year and just before home possession you change jobs. The lender will now ask for proof that probation for this new job is waived and new job letters and pay stubs at the very least. If you change industries they will want to see more proof that you are capable of keeping this job.
If your new job involves overtime or bonuses of any kind that vary over time, they will ask for a 2 year average which you will not be able to provide.
Another item that could ruin your chances of getting the mortgage is if you decide to change from an employee to a self-employed contractor just before possession day. Even though you are in the same industry, your employment status has changed . This is a big deal killer.

2. Debt – A week or two before your possession date, the lender will obtain a copy of your credit report and look for any changes to your debt load. Your approval was based on how much you owed on that particular date. Buying a new car or items for the new home need to be postponed until after possession of your new home.
Don’t be fooled by “Do not pay for 12 months” sales campaigns. You now owe this money regardless of when the payments start. Don’t buy a new car and don’t buy furniture for the new home. This will increase your debt ratio and can nullify your financing.

3. Down payment source – And yet again I reiterate that the approval is based on the initial information you have provided. You will be asked at the lawyer’s office to verify the source of the down payment and if it is different than what the lender has approved, then you may be in trouble. For example, you said that you were going to save the funds and then at the last minute Mom and Dad offer you the funds as a gift. There’s no problem accepting the gift if the lender knows about it in advance and has included this in their risk assessment, but it can end a deal.

4. Credit – Don’t forget to make your regular credit card payments. If your credit score falls due to late payments, this can kill your financing. If you have a high ratio mortgage in place which required CMHC insurance, a lower credit score could mean a withdrawal of their insurance once again , killing the deal.

5-Identity Documents – This can be a deal killer at the lawyer’s office. The lawyer is required to verify your identity documents and see that they match the mortgage documents. Many Canadians use their middle names if they have the same name as their parent. Lots of new Canadians adopt a more Canadian sounding name for their day-to-day lives but their passports and other documents show another name.

Be sure to use your legal name when you apply for a mortgage to avoid this catastrophe . Finally, keep in touch with your Dominion Lending Centres mortgage professional right up to possession day. Make this a happy experience rather than a heartbreaking one.

 

By David Cooke From Dominion Lending Centers

ARE MORTGAGE TERMS MORE IMPORTANT THAN RATE?

General Ian Wang 23 Apr

ARE MORTGAGE TERMS MORE IMPORTANT THAN RATE?

Why are the terms more important than rate when it comes to a mortgage?

Simple. Seven out of 10 Canadians break their mortgages prior to the renewal date.
Taking the wrong mortgage when you could have qualified for a better one- is a costly mistake.

The biggest mistake anyone can make is they don’t think they need to make a change, or they’re the three-in 10 that won’t break a mortgage.

For those people I give you a short list of potential reasons why you might need to get out of a mortgage early.

1. Sale and purchase – maybe you get an offer you can’t refuse, either work or real estate related, maybe the zoning has changed, your neighbours or strata are unmanageable or maybe you want to grow your family
2. Take Equity out – get renovations done, help family members or buy another investment, pay CRA, or assessments on property
3. Pay off debt – maybe you are like the over 60% of Canadians living paycheque to paycheque and paying over 5% on credit cards or lines of credit. There are much more savings in interest and cash flow for you utilizing your equity.
4. Relationship changes – moving in together, divorce is at a 50% rate these days, kids (needing more space or need to move in together).
5. Health or life challenges – huge illness, unemployment or death of someone on title can be a burden enough.
6. Removing someone from title – a co-signer (3/10 homebuyers get help from a family member) or an ex-spouse.
7. Save money with a lower rate – the market is always changing. It may make sense to break early and go with a different term as the market changes.
8. Pay it off – maybe you won the lottery or got an inheritance.

Some of the above is not avoidable, but the one thing you totally can control is who you align yourself with when shopping for a mortgage. A Dominion Lending Centres mortgage broker will always be looking at all the factors involved in a mortgage without bias to help you make an educated decision on what best suits you.

 

Ian Wang     

Mortgage Agent

License #: M17000892

Dominion Lending Centres Mortgage House. FSCO#10557

Cell:1-647-293-3427 

Fax:1-416-987-0678

Email: ianwang@dominionlending.ca

Website: www.iwang.ca

Office: 8901 Woodbine Ave Unit 225, Markham, ON. L3R 9Y4

WHAT’S AN ACCEPTABLE DOWN PAYMENT FOR A HOUSE?

General Ian Wang 14 Feb

Ask people this question and you will get a variety of answers.  Most home owners will say 10% is what you should put down. However, if you speak with your grandparents, they are likely to suggest that 20% is what you need for a down payment.

The truth is 5% is the minimum down payment that you can make on a home in Canada. If you are planning on buying a $200,000 home then you need $10,000.

It all can be explained by the creation of the Canadian Mortgage and Housing corporation (CMHC) by the Canadian government on January 1st, 1946. Before this time, you needed to have 20% down payment to purchase a home . This made home ownership difficult for many Canadians. CMHC  was created to ease home ownership. This was done by offering mortgage default insurance. Basically what CMHC does is it guarantees that you will not default on your mortgage payments. If you do, they will reimburse the lender who gave you the mortgage up to 100% of what the homeowner borrowed. In return lenders allow you to purchase a home with a smaller down payment and a lower interest rate.

CMHC charges an insurance premium for this service to cover any losses that may occur from defaulted mortgages. This program was so successful that CMHC lowered the minimum down payment to 5% in the 1980’s.

However, if you have little credit history or some late payments in the past they may ask you to provide 10% instead of the tradition 5% if they feel there is a risk that you may default at some time.

You should also be aware that the more money you put down, the lower your monthly mortgage payments will be. You also can save thousands in mortgage default insurance premiums by putting 20% down.  At this time,  home buyers who put 5% down have to pay a fee of 4% to CMHC or one of the other mortgage default insurers to obtain home financing. On a $400,000 home this is close to $16,000.

If you can provide a 10% down payment the insurance premium falls to 3.10% and if you can provide 20% it drops to zero.  While 20% can seem like an impossible amount to save, you can use a combination of savings, a gift from family and/or a portion of your RRSP savings to achieve this figure. The best recommendation that I can make is to speak with your Dominion Lending Centres mortgage professional to discuss your options and where to start on your home buying adventure.

9 REASONS WHY PEOPLE BREAK THEIR MORTGAGES

General Ian Wang 18 Jan

9 REASONS WHY PEOPLE BREAK THEIR MORTGAGES

Did you know that 60 per cent of people break their mortgage before their mortgage term matures?

Most homeowners are blissfully unaware that when you break your mortgage with your lender, you will incur penalties and those penalties can be painfully expensive.

Many homeowners are so focused on the rate that they are ignorant about the terms of their mortgage.

Is it sensible to save $15/month on a lower interest rate only to find out that, two years down the road you need to break your mortgage and that “safe” 5-year fixed rate could cost you over $20,000 in penalties?

There are a variety of different mortgage choices available. Knowing my 9 reasons for a possible break in your mortgage might help you avoid them (and those troublesome penalties)!

9 reasons why people break their mortgages:

1. Sale and purchase of a home
• If you are considering moving within the next 5 years you need to consider a portable mortgage.
• Not all of mortgages are portable. Some lenders avoid portable mortgages by giving a slightly lower interest rate.
• Please note: when you port a mortgage, you will need to requalify to ensure you can afford the “ported” mortgage based on your current income and any the current mortgage rules.

2. To take equity out
• In the last 3 years many home owners (especially in Vancouver & Toronto) have seen a huge increase in their home values. Some home owners will want to take out the available equity from their homes for investment purposes, such as buying a rental property.

3. To pay off debt
• Life happens, and you may have accumulated some debt. By rolling your debts into your mortgage, you can pay off the debts over a long period of time at a much lower interest rate than credit cards. Now that you are no longer paying the high interest rates on credit cards, it gives you the opportunity to get your finances in order.

4. Cohabitation & marriage & children
• You and your partner decide it’s time to live together… you both have a home and can’t afford to keep both homes, or you both have a no rental clause. The reality is that you have one home too many and may need to sell one of the homes.
• You’re bursting at the seams in your 1-bedroom condo with baby #2 on the way.

5. Relationship/marriage break up
• 43% of Canadian marriages are now expected to end in divorce. When a couple separates, typically the equity in the home will be split between both parties.
• If one partner wants to buy out the other partner, they will need to refinance the home

6. Health challenges & life circumstances
• Major life events such as illness, unemployment, death of a partner (or someone on title), etc. may require the home to be refinanced or even sold.

7. Remove a person from Title
• 20% of parents help their children purchase a home. Once the kids are financially secure and can qualify on their own, many parents want to be removed from Title.
o Some lenders allow parents to be removed from Title with an administration fee & legal fees.
o Other lenders say that changing the people on Title equates to breaking your mortgage – yup… there will be penalties.

8. To save money, with a lower interest rate
• Mortgage interest rates may be lower now than when you originally got your mortgage.
• Work with your mortgage broker to crunch the numbers to see if it’s worthwhile to break your mortgage for the lower interest rate.

9. Pay the mortgage off before the maturity date
• YIPEE – you’ve won the lottery, got an inheritance, scored the world’s best job or some other windfall of cash!! Some people will have the funds to pay off their mortgage early.
• With a good mortgage, you should be able to pay off your mortgage in 5 years, there by avoiding penalties.

Some of these 9 reasons are avoidable, others are not…

Mortgages are complicated… Therefore, you need a mortgage expert!

Give a Dominion Lending Centres mortgage specialist a call and let’s discuss the best mortgage for you, not your bank!

THE IMPACT OF MORTGAGE RULE CHANGES

General Ian Wang 17 Oct

THE IMPACT OF MORTGAGE RULE CHANGES

The mortgage rule changes that were passed by the Ministry of Finance in October 2016 are still having their effect one year later. Higher qualification requirements and new bank capital requirements have split the industry into two segments – those who qualify for mortgage insurance and those who don’t.

Mortgages that qualify for mortgage insurance are basically new purchases for borrows that have less than 20% down and can debt-service at the Bank of Canada Benchmark rate (currently 4.89%). Those who don’t are basically everyone else – people with more than 20% down payment but need to qualify at the lower contract rate, and people who have built up more than 20% equity in their homes and are hoping to refinance to tap into that equity.

The biggest difference we are seeing is two levels of rate offerings. Those that qualify for a mortgage insurance by one of the three insurers in Canada (CMHC, Genworth and Canada Guaranty) are being offered the best rates on the market. Those who don’t qualify cost the banks more to offer mortgages due to the new capital requirements and so are offered a higher rate to off-set that cost.
Dominion Lending Centres’ President, Gary Mauris, wrote a letter to the Prime Minister and the Minister of Finance at the beginning of October 2017 outlining the negative impact of those changes on Canadians on year later. That letter was also published in the Globe and Mail. CLICK HERE to see that letter.

But even more alarming are the rumblings being heard about another round of qualification changes that will see those who have been disciplined in saving or building equity having to qualify at a rate 2.00% higher than what they will actually get from their lender.
Where the first round of changes in 2016 saw affordability cut by about 20% for insured mortgages, this new round of changes will have much the same impact on the rest of mortgage borrowers – regardless of how responsible we’ve proven to be.

The mortgage default rate in Canada is less than 1/3 of a percent. We Canadians simply make our mortgage payments. So where’s the risk?
The new qualification rules are intended to protect us from higher rates when our current terms come to an end. But when most Canadians are already being prudent, borrowing at well below their maximum debt-to-income levels the question now is why do we need to be protected from ourselves?

The latest round of rule changes are rumoured to be coming into effect by the end of October 2017 so my word of advice to at least those who have been contemplating a refinance to meet current goals? Contact your Mortgage Professional at Dominion Lending Centres to find out your options before your window of opportunity is closed.

CANADIAN JOBS BEAT EXPECTATION IN MARCH, BUT WAGE GROWTH IS SLUGGISH

General Ian Wang 7 Apr

Canada’s economy continue to generate job growth in March, extending an employment rally that is the strongest in years, but with increasingly sluggish wage increases. Canadian employment grew by 19,400 in March–exceeding economists’ expectation for the fourth consecutive month–while the unemployment rate increased 0.1 percentage points to 6.7% as more people searched for work.

This brings job gains in the first quarter to 83,000 or 0.5%, which is comparable to the last quarter of 2016 and well above the first quarter of last year. This further flags a surge in Canadian economic activity in Q1, as real GDP growth is likely to come in at a 3.5% pace.

Another piece of very good news is that most of the employment gain was in full-time work. The net job gain in March reflected an increase of 18,400 full-time jobs and a gain of 1,000 part-time workers. The year-over-year increase in employment is posted at 276,400 (+1.5%), now mostly in full-time work, as the total number of hours worked rose by 0.7%. Canada has added 223,100 full-time jobs over the past year versus 53,300 part-time jobs.

Yet, the pace of annual wage rate increases fell to 1.1% in March, the lowest since the 1990s. The weakness in wage gains seems to be an Ontario phenomenon. The province, which has led employment increases over the past year, recorded an annual 0.1% increase in wages in March, also the lowest on record. On the brighter side, manufacturing looks like it came back in March, with a gain of 24,400 positions, the most since 2002. The rise in the number of hours worked helped to offset the weakness in wages.

Leading the way was strength in job growth in hard-hit Alberta, showing gains of 20,000, all in full-time work. More people sought jobs in the province last month, leaving the jobless rate unchanged at 8.4%–down from a peak of 9.0% in November. Job gains were also recorded in Nova Scotia and Manitoba. Employment in March fell in Saskatchewan, while it was relatively stable in the remaining provinces.

There were more people working in manufacturing; business, building and other support services; wholesale and retail trade; and information, culture and recreation. On the other hand, declines were recorded in educational services; transportation and warehousing; “other services”; and public administration. The rebound in manufacturing was the largest one-month increase since August 2002. This is on the heels of a downtrend in factory work throughout 2016.

The strength of today’s jobs report for March gives the Bank of Canada a lot to ponder when it meets next week. Real GDP is on track to beat the Bank’s forecasts for a third consecutive quarter and the unemployment rate at 6.7% remains below the 10-year pre-recession average, a time when the economy was considered to be at full-employment. The Bank has played down the recent upswing in economic data and this report will likely fuel their concerns even with the gain in employment. While economic growth has accelerated and employers are hiring, it’s tough to be sanguine about the expansion without a pick-up in wages. Wage rates are growing at only half the pace of the cost of living. The Bank of Canada will likely hold interest rates at today’s low levels despite the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes.

Provincial Unemployment Rates in March In Descending Order (percent)
(Previous months in brackets)
— Newfoundland and Labrador 14.9 (14.2)
— Prince Edward Island 10.1 (10.0)
— Nova Scotia 8.6 (8.1)
— New Brunswick 8.4 (8.9)
— Alberta 8.4 (8.3)
— Ontario 6.4 (6.2)
— Quebec 6.4 (6.4)
— Saskatchewan 6.0 (6.0)
— Manitoba 5.5 (5.8)
— British Columbia 5.4 (5.1)
US JOB GROWTH SLOWS WHILE JOBLESS RATE HITS LOWEST LEVEL SINCE 2007

US payrolls rose 98,000 in March following a 219,000 gain in February that was less than previously estimated. This was well below the median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists. The divergence in March from the prior month likely reflected, at least in part, swings in weather disturbances–there was a snowstorm in the March payrolls survey week that dumped 10-to–20 inches of snow over a large swath of the Northeast, following an unusually warm February.

The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.5% from 4.7%, and wage gains slowed to a 2.7% year-over-year pace.

While the payrolls data are the weakest since May and represent a pullback from the first two months of the year, it may reflect just how close the US is to full capacity. This has led the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates in March and forecast two more rate increases this year. Businesses have reported labour shortages, confronting a dwindling pool of unemployed, and are gradually giving in to pressures to raise wages in order to attract and retain talent. This is in direct contrast to the situation in Canada. With the economy moving ever closer to full capacity, US monetary policy will be more focused on pulling back on the unneeded liquidity in the system. This is expected to keep the central bank tightening going forward via raising overnight fed funds rate along with a shrinking Fed’s holdings of government bonds and mortgage-backed securities.

This despite other evidence surfacing of a slowdown in the US economy, as consumer spending barely advanced in February and demand for autos slowed in March. US growth in the first quarter of this year is expected to be under 2.0%, well below the 3.5% expectation for growth in Canada. A second-quarter rebound, while expected, could depend on the strength in the labour market.

Notably, the retail sector in the US has been very weak. Retailers cut around 30,000 positions for a second month amid reports of store closings, while gains in construction and manufacturing eased. This was mirrored by reports in Canada of layoffs and belt-tightening by Hudson Bay Company, which owns Saks Fifth Avenue and Lord and Taylor’s in the US, as well as The Bay in Canada.

President Trump continues to emphasize job-market indicators that measure slack, including the number of Americans who have given up looking for work and therefore aren’t counted in the labor force. The number of discouraged workers fell by 62,000 in March to 460,000. The underemployment rate, a measure that includes those working part-time who would take a full-time job if it were available, fell to 8.9%, the lowest since December 2007, from 9.2% in February. The labour force participation rate has been historically low in the US, but it may well be held down by the growing number of older workers who are leaving the labour force.

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